Self-directed Investors:
Lower Your Investment Risk
Improve Your Returns
Our Investment Strategies Thrive On Minimizing Risk
We spend more time growing your portfolio by minimizing the time spent filling in holes. Each decline must be fully recovered before your portfolio can return to growth. You will be hard pressed to find investment strategies with lower drawdowns over a full (Bull/Bear) market cycle.
Our Strategies Adapt To Favorable, Balanced, and Hostile Market Risk Conditions
We are more effective in maximizing returns by identifying and adapting to changing Market Risk Conditions. Each Market Risk Condition offers a unique opportunity to enhance returns based on the blend of equity, fixed income, and alternative asset classes. Again, you will be hard pressed to find investment strategies with more consistent returns over a full (Bull/Bear) market cycle.
Tactical Asset Allocation
is an active investment management strategy that dynamically adjusts a portfolio’s asset allocation to current market conditions with the objectives of minimizing the potential for large drawdowns and maximizing opportunities to improve returns. Tactical Asset Allocation employs a mechanical approach to selection of funds within a basket of passive index funds.
Our unique approach to Tactical Asset Allocation offers a much better way.
- Our Market Conditions Model identifies market conditions as "Favorable", "Balanced", or "Hostile". The market condition is used to select one of three baskets of low-cost, passive Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) which are most likely to lower risk and improve returns.
- Our Tactical Model then uses the selected basket to apply sophisticated momentum and risk management techniques which are used to select those funds most likely to lower risk and improve returns. Portfolios are rebalanced monthly in a process which provides the ideal combination of active management using passive funds.
The result is an investment process which avoids large drawdowns while providing exceptional returns over a full (Bull/Bear) market cycle.
Active Management Comes With Challenges
Am I making the best decisions?
Am I missing out on great opportunities?
Am I holding too much or too little cash? equities? fixed income?
Which ideas and research can I trust?
Bull Market or Bear Market ahead?
If I get out, when and how do I get back in?
The TAAStrategies Meet The Challenge
The TAAStrategies are designed for the self-directed investor who understands that a tested, mechanical methodology:
reduces emotional risk
reduces investment risk
improves returns
The TAAStrategies Explained
A robust, definable and repeatable process that over time puts the balance of probabilities in your favor.
Identify Market Conditions
The Market Conditions Model measures equity and fixed income market conditions in a probabilistic way. For example, it may signal Favorable conditions if there is a high probability of a market rise with low risk. However, a signal of Favorable conditions is not a guarantee of a Bull Market nor does a signal of Hostile conditions presage, with certainty, a Bear Market. However, the three conditions, when coupled with the appropriate fund baskets, work incredibly well in lowering risk and improving returns across full market cycles
Select Fund Basket
The Tactical Model selects a fund basket based on Market Condition Favorable, Balanced, or Hostile. Each fund basket consists of funds which have been carefully selected and validated for a specific market condition.
Favorable
A strongly trending market with little risk of major decline. Unexpected declines are likely to be temporary and relatively short-lived.
The fund basket emphasizes domestic and international equities supplemented with real estate, commodities and fixed income.
Balanced
Risks of market decline and opportunity for advance are roughly equal; however conditions are supportive of increased volatility and uncertainty.
The fund basket includes a mix of larger domestic and international equity funds together with a complement of high quality fixed income.
Hostile
High risk of extended market Correction (10%+) and Bear Market (20%+) declines and large equity drawdowns.
The fund basket emphasizes a broad spectrum of government fixed income together with a limited selection of large cap equity funds and commodities.
Rank, Select, and Allocate
The Tactical Model then ranks, selects and allocates the best performing funds from the selected basket. Should there not be sufficient "best performing funds", the allocation is assigned to cash.
Rank
Four years of research and development went into Adaptive Dynamic Momentum, our ranking algorithm.
While most tactical ranking is performed using fixed length periods; Adaptive Dynamic Momentum identifies the optimum ranking criteria for each fund, each week.
The much improved trend identification results in higher returns and lower drawdowns.
Select
Fund ranking is just the beginning of the process for selecting funds for the next rebalance.
We are just as interested in how well a fund is likely to continue performing in the future as how well it has performed in the past.
Adaptive Dynamic Momentum assigns a confidence level to each fund's trend ranking. We use the combined ranking and confidence level to make the final selections.
Allocate
Once the funds eligible for the next rebalance are selected, portfolio weights are assigned to each fund.
We employ volatility weighting algorithms which allocate larger percentages to funds with low volatility and smaller percentages to funds with high volatility.
The small decrease in return is offset with a larger decrease in portfolio volatility.
The Tactical Model Has The Final Say
While the Market Conditions Model does a great job in informing us whether conditions are Favorable, Balanced, or Hostile; the Tactical Model has the final say. The Tactical Model does not allocate to funds which are not trending positively, even when conditions are favorable.
It requires just a few minutes each month to rebalance your portfolio using the monthly Rebalance Letter.
STRATEGY RESULTS
Tactical Adaptive Global
Tactical Adaptive Global provides broad exposure to domestic and international equities, fixed income, real estate, commodities and precious metals. Tactical Adaptive Global is intended for use in portfolios where the primary objective is high return with moderate risk.
Tactical Adaptive Income
Tactical Adaptive Income provides conservative investors with a Fixed Income strategy which delivers outstanding returns, low drawdowns, and exceptionally low volatility. Tactical Adaptive Income is intended for use in portfolios where the primary goal is moderate return with low risk.
Managing with the TAAStrategies is smart and saves you money
Intelligent Allocations
Market Conditions change: capitalizing upon cyclical rallies and declines optimizes total portfolio returns.
Controlled Selection
We improve returns by continuously selecting the best performing funds and discarding those which are not.
Lower Risk
Selling an asset that is declining is not timing the market, it is simply a way of managing risk.
No Management Fees
Portfolio management fees can eat 10% - 20% - 30% of average annual portfolio returns
What Can Subscribers Expect?
Manage your investments with a mechanical strategy and peace of mind in less than 15 minutes a month.
Lower Investment Risk
I have tested many thousands of tactical strategies and, in every case, my first focus has been on drawdowns, then returns.
The strategies which have resulted from this discipline are strategies in which I have confidence sharing with my family and with my subscribers.
Improved Returns
The TAAStrategies provide improved returns because they avoid suffering through deep drawdowns and because they are constantly invested in the best performing funds.
Focus On Results
I remain focused on results. My methods are mechanical; not discretionary or emotionally driven.
Objectivity
I have no third party, bank, investment firm, or broker relationships that skew my suggestions.
I subscribe to, and use these Strategies to manage a substantial portion of our personal investments.
Subscribers Remain Firmly In Control
Strategy portfolios are held in the Subscriber's OWN brokerage account.
Subscribers make the final decisions regarding ALL investments.
READY TO SUBSCRIBE?
"I believe in my experience, methods, and approach strongly enough that if you aren't entirely happy within the first two months, I'll return the entire Subscription Fee."
Personal Quarterly Subscription: $325
Enjoy lower risk and higher returns through broad exposure to domestic and international equities, fixed income, real estate, commodities and precious metals. Includes both Adaptive Global and Adaptive Income.
