Tactical Adaptive Strategies Update Performance Adaptive Global lost 0.38% and 0.02% YTD. Gains in big cap equities were offset by the continuing correction in precious metals and a decline in mid-duration Treasuries. Adaptive Income gained 0.01% and gained 0.96% YTD. The position in mortgage bonds gained slighlty. Adaptive Innovation lost 0.24% and gained 1.45% YTD. … Read more Tactical Asset Allocation – November 2019
Tactical Adaptive Strategies Update Performance Adaptive Global gained 0.98% and 0.36% YTD. Positions in precious metals and equities were standout gainers while Treasuries and investment grade bonds produced small gains. Adaptive Income lost 0.61% and gained 0.95% YTD. Adaptive Income declined on weakness in high yield. (Note: the Tactical Model’s selection of mortgage bonds was … Read more Tactical Asset Allocation – October 2019
Tactical Adaptive Strategies Update Performance Adaptive Global lost 1.22% and lost .62% YTD. The position in big caps took a modest loss, the position in precious metals took a large loss as they pulled back from the recent sharp run-up, the large position in high quality bonds suffered a small loss on the pullback from … Read more Tactical Asset Allocation – September 2019
I will be rolling out upgrades to the Tactical Model and Adaptive Strategies beginning with the November 29 rebalance for the month of December. In each case, the focus has been on improving control over the upper bounds of portfolio volatility, improving the consistency of annual returns, and on reducing fund turnover.
In order to provide the fullest possible disclosure, the Chart and Table displays on the website will include tables for both the original (labeled “Repl Dec 2019)” and upgraded Strategy beginning with the next update in early December.
The primary benefit of minor changes to Adaptive Global is reduction in both Standard Deviation of Monthly Returns and the Ulcer Index:.
A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.
Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.
I will be rolling out upgrades to the Tactical Model and Adaptive Strategies beginning with the November 29 rebalance for the month of December. In each case, the focus has been on improving control over the upper bounds of portfolio volatility, improving the consistency of annual returns, and on reducing fund turnover.
In order to provide the fullest possible disclosure, the Chart and Table displays on the website will include tables for both the original (labeled “Repl Dec 2019)” and upgraded Strategy beginning with the next update in early December.
The primary benefit of changes to Adaptive Income is a broadening of the fund basket and reduction in both Standard Deviation of Monthly Returns and the Ulcer Index:
A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.
Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.
I will be rolling out upgrades to the Tactical Model and Adaptive Strategies beginning with the November 29 rebalance for the month of December. In each case, the focus has been on improving control over the upper bounds of portfolio volatility, improving the consistency of annual returns, and on reducing fund turnover.
In order to provide the fullest possible disclosure, the Chart and Table displays on the website will include tables for both the original (labeled “Repl Dec 2019)” and upgraded Strategy beginning with the next update in early December.
This upgrade to Adaptive Innovation improves performance while significantly reducing volatility.
A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.
Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.