Tactical Asset Allocation – February 2016

The Core portfolio spent January entirely in cash and February in high quality bonds (AGG) and short term Treasuries (SHY). The Core Portfolio is up 0.50% for 2016 YTD. The Risk Model continues (since 11/30/2014) to display hostile market conditions. The Satellite Portfolio is hibernating (all portfolio funds are in the Core Portfolio). As I … Read moreTactical Asset Allocation – February 2016

Tactical Asset Allocation – January 2016

The Core portfolio spent January entirely in cash and results are flat for 2016. The Risk Model continues (since 11/30/2014) to display hostile market conditions. The Satellite Portfolio is hibernating (all portfolio funds are in the Core Portfolio). As I look forward into 2016, I expect the TAA portfolio to keep us out of trouble for … Read moreTactical Asset Allocation – January 2016

Tactical Asset Allocation – December 2015

The Core portfolio spent December in high quality bonds (AGG) and short term Treasuries (SHY). The Core Portfolio was down 0.10% for December and down 1.45% for 2015. Market conditions and volatility were extremely challenging for all investment classes during 2015. There was little/no trend in what has clearly been a Central Bank drive market. One Fed … Read moreTactical Asset Allocation – December 2015

 

A Caveat

A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.

Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.

 

A Caveat

A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.

Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.

A Caveat

A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.

Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.