The Core portfolio spent January (0.0%) entirely in cash, then shifted into high quality bonds and short term Treasuries for February (+0.50%) and March (+0.51%). The Core portfolio took on some equity exposure for April (+.75%), and continues with the same mix of equity and fixed income for May. My first objective is to minimize … Read more
The Core portfolio spent January (0.0%) entirely in cash, then shifted into high quality bonds and short term Treasuries for February (+0.50%) and March (+0.51%). The Risk Model has served us well in identifying the period since 11/30/2014 as hostile which has kept us hunkered down in the Core Portfolio and out of the Satellite … Read more
The Core portfolio spent January entirely in cash and February in high quality bonds (AGG) and short term Treasuries (SHY). The Core Portfolio is up 0.50% for 2016 YTD. The Risk Model continues (since 11/30/2014) to display hostile market conditions. The Satellite Portfolio is hibernating (all portfolio funds are in the Core Portfolio). As I … Read more
Our results tables are constructed for three full market cycles beginning in January 2000.
The Adaptive Global table shows backtested results through July 2018 followed by actual results. More information is available in the blog article: The TAAStrategies, A Short History.
The most recent market cycle covers January 2020 to date.
The second market cycle covers October 2007 through December 2019. The Adaptive Global and Adaptive Income strategies were developed using the first 10+- years of data from this cycle while the final years are actual.
The third market cycle covers January 2000 through September 2007. This market cycle was used to provide out of sample validation of strategy results from the second market cycle. The fact that the return and risk metrics for the third cycle are statistically comparable to those for the second cycle validates the process.
The fund baskets for our tactical strategies are constructed from indexed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) with just two exceptions, an Open End Fund and a Closed End Fund, both with long history. A number of the ETFs we use were not created until 2007+. In each case, we infill using predecessor Open End Funds (OEFs) for which the indexing and/or subclass is substantially similar to the ETF.
We have been asked if it is possible to extend backtests to the 1970’s. While a few publishers attempt this; we believe it is not possible to produce credible results for all but the most basic TAA strategies due to the lack of funds with substantially similar indexing and/or classification. Doing so would force me to stretch the term "substantial" far beyond my comfort level.
A blank month indicates that the strategy was in cash.
A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.
Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.
Our results tables are constructed for three full market cycles beginning in January 2000.
The Adaptive Income table shows backtested results through June 2019 followed by actual results. More information is available in the blog article: The TAAStrategies, A Short History.
The most recent market cycle covers January 2020 to date.
The second market cycle covers October 2007 through December 2019. The Adaptive Global and Adaptive Income strategies were developed using the first 10+- years of data from this cycle while the final years are actual.
The third market cycle covers January 2000 through September 2007. This market cycle was used to provide out of sample validation of strategy results from the second market cycle. The fact that the return and risk metrics for the third cycle are statistically comparable to those for the second cycle validates the process.
The fund baskets for our tactical strategies are constructed from indexed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) with just two exceptions, an Open End Fund and a Closed End Fund, both with long history. A number of the ETFs we use were not created until 2007+. In each case, we infill using predecessor Open End Funds (OEFs) for which the indexing and/or subclass is substantially similar to the ETF.
We have been asked if it is possible to extend backtests to the 1970’s. While a few publishers attempt this; we believe it is not possible to produce credible results for all but the most basic TAA strategies due to the lack of funds with substantially similar indexing and/or classification. Doing so would force me to stretch the term "substantial" far beyond my comfort level.
A blank month indicates that the strategy was in cash.
A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.
Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.
The Innovation ETFs used in the Innovation Strategy were not established until 2014-2015 so our history is limited.
There are no predecessor funds which are similar enough to use for infill.
The Adaptive Innovation table shows backtested results through June 2019 followed by actual results. More information is available in the blog article: The TAAStrategies, A Short History.
A blank month indicates that the strategy was in cash.
A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.
Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.