I believe that readers and subscribers have a right to as much information as possible about the TAAStrategies including the good (returns) and the bad (draw downs) on a month by month, year by year and summary basis.
Why a right? Because it’s your investment dollars and you need complete information to determine if the strategies are suitable for your portfolio.
You should insist on this information before investing in any financial product.
Results for Adaptive Global are near actual results from mid-2018 and actual results from mid-2019. Results for Adaptive Income are actual results from mid-2019. More information is available in the blog article: The TAAStrategies, A Short History.
The Adaptive Global and Adaptive Income strategies were developed using bear/bull datasets from 2007 through 2017. Out of sample validation of risk and return metrics using bear/bull datasets from January 2000 through September 2007 were statistically comparable to the 2007-2017 period.
The fund baskets for the TAAStrategies are constructed from indexed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) with just two exceptions, an Open End Fund and a Closed End Fund, both with long history. A number of the ETFs we use were not created until 2007+. In each case, we infill using predecessor Open End Funds (OEFs) for which the indexing and/or subclass is substantially similar to the ETF.
I have been asked if it is possible to extend backtests to the 1970’s. While a few publishers attempt this; I believe it is not possible to produce credible results for any but the most basic TAA strategies using a handful of classes/sub-classes due to the lack of funds with substantially similar indexing and/or classification. Doing so would force me to stretch the term "substantial" far beyond my comfort level.
A 40+- year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began more than a decade ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.
Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.