Tactical Asset Allocation – April 2017

Strategy Update

Performance

Global Core finished April up 0.97% and up 4.47% year to date.

Domestic equities, International equities, and Treasuries all contributed to this month's gains.

Especially notable is that Global Core  lagged the S&P 500 by just 0.02 (0.97% vs 0.99%) in performance for the month while Global Core's mid-month decline was limited to 0.003% versus 1.14% for the S&P 500's. While such favorable upside/downside performance is exceptional, it does illustrate the focus of Global Core in minimizing drawdowns. I look forward to the day when market conditions permit us to deploy Global Satellite to capture high returns.

Market

The US equity markets declined into mid-April and then rallied into month-end. International equities, including both developed and emerging markets were stronger than the US equities. Fixed income did well for the month.

Positions go Long Term

While I began using the TAAS Strategies in November of 2014, it was not until April of 2016 that I opened the Strategies to subscribers. Our first subscribers are now completing their first year. I am pleased to note that subscribers who employed the recommended Last In, First Out tax strategy will see much of their holdings become eligible for Long Term tax treatment on May 1.

Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Performance

Global Strategy (Conservative)

Month-to-date: 0.97% gain
Year-to-date: 4.47% gain
Full cycle-to-date (Sep 2007): 12.80% CAGR, 6.53% Max Monthly Drawdown

Global Strategy (Aggressive)

Month-to-date: 0.97% gain
Year-to-date: 4.47% gain
Full cycle-to-date (Sep 2007): 15.27% CAGR, 8.21% Max Monthly Drawdown

Strategy Performance Chart and Table (updated monthly)

Tactical Asset Allocation Fund Basket Performance

Global Core

Month-to-date: 0.97% gain
Year-to-date: 4.47% gain
Full cycle-to-date (Sep 2007): 10.31% CAGR, 6.53% Max Monthly Drawdown

Global Satellite

Month-to-date: hibernating since Nov 2014
Year-to-date: hibernating since Nov 2014
Full cycle-to-date (Sep 2007): 25.90% [email protected]*, 8.2% Max Monthly Drawdown

*CAGR for the "Favorable" Market Conditions during which Global Satellite was invested

Basket Performance Chart and Table (updated monthly)

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The table below shows performance for the Adaptive Global strategy through May.

Effective with the May 29 monthly rebalance, several of the ETFs have been shifted among the Favorable, Balanced, and Hostile market conditions. The strategy continues to use the same basket of ETFs, the same Adaptive Dynamic Momentum algorithm, the same selection algorithm, and the same weighting algorithm..The chart and table below reflect the changes.

Compares performance of the Tactical Adaptive Strategies to the S&P 500 and Vanguard Balanced Index Fund

Supporting tables for Tactical Adaptive Global. S&P 500 (SPY) and Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX) can be found below

Our backtest results tables are constructed for two full market cycles beginning in January 2000.

The most recent market cycle covers October 2007 to date. The fund baskets for our tactical strategies are constructed from indexed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) with just two exceptions, an Open End Fund and a Closed End Fund, both with long history.

The earlier market cycle covers January 2000 through September 2007. A number of the ETFs we use were not created until later in the decade. For those cases, we infill using predecessor Open End Funds (OEFs) for which the indexing and/or subclass is substantially similar to the ETF. Aside from providing insight into possible strategy performance during a second, earlier, cycle, they also offer the advantage of completely out of sample data. The fact that the metrics of both cycles are very comparable appears to validate the process.

We have been asked if it is possible to extend backtests to earlier decades. While this appears to be a common practice with some services; it is not possible to produce credible results for many strategies due to the lack of funds with substantially similar indexing and/or subclass. Doing so would force me to stretch the term "substantial" far beyond my comfort level.

A Caveat

A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.

Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.

Benchmark S&P 500 (SPY)

Benchmark Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX)

Compares performance of the Tactical Adaptive Strategies to the S&P 500 and Vanguard Balanced Index Fund

Supporting tables for Tactical Adaptive Income, S&P 500 (SPY) and Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX) can be found below

Our backtest results tables are constructed for two full market cycles beginning in January 2000.

The most recent market cycle covers October 2007 to date. The fund baskets for our tactical strategies are constructed from indexed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) with just two exceptions, an Open End Fund and a Closed End Fund, both with long history.

The earlier market cycle covers January 2000 through September 2007. A number of the ETFs we use were not created until later in the decade. For those cases, we infill using predecessor Open End Funds (OEFs) for which the indexing and/or subclass is substantially similar to the ETF. Aside from providing insight into possible strategy performance during a second, earlier, cycle, they also offer the advantage of completely out of sample data. The fact that the metrics of both cycles are very comparable appears to validate the process.

We have been asked if it is possible to extend backtests to earlier decades. While this appears to be a common practice with some services; it is not possible to produce credible results for many strategies due to the lack of funds with substantially similar indexing and/or subclass. Doing so would force me to stretch the term "substantial" far beyond my comfort level.

A Caveat

A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.

Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.

Benchmark S&P 500 (SPY)

Benchmark Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX)

Compares performance of the Tactical Adaptive Strategies to the S&P 500 and Vanguard Balanced Index Fund

Supporting tables for Tactical Adaptive Innovation, S&P 500 (SPY) and Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX) can be found below

The Innovation ETFs used in the Innovation Strategy were not established until 2014-2015 so our history is limited. There are no predecessor funds which are similar enough to use for infill.

A Caveat

A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.

Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.

Benchmark S&P 500 (SPY)

Benchmark Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX)