Tactical Adaptive Strategies Update
Adaptive Global gained 0.76% for the month and has gained 2.45% YTD. Adaptive Global was invested in an eclectic mix of precious metals, big cap value, international real estate (all up nicely), and long term Treasuries (down).
Adaptive Income lost 0.23% for the month and has gained 5.18% YTD. Adaptive Income was invested high yield municipal bonds. The two month OEF reentry limitation prevented the Tactical Model from returning to its preferred selection of the Ivy Fund which turned in a nice gain.
Adaptive Innovation lost 2.60% for the month and gained 7.44% YTD. Adaptive Innovation split investments between intermediate and long term Treasuries.
By now, it’s a well known fact that the mega and big cap indexes dominated by a few mega cap tech stocks are making new highs while most other indexes and sectors are showing losses.
Let’s have a look at the CAGR and Max Report Drawdowns (MaxRD) for the major equity indexes for 2020:
- NASDAQ 100 Cap Weight (QQQ) - 38.12% gain w 12.9% MaxRD
- S&P 500 Cap Weight (SPY) - 10.08% gain w 30.6% MaxRD
- S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) - 1.58% loss w 26.7% MaxRD
- S&P 400 Mid Cap Weight (IJH) - 4.55% loss w 29.7% MaxRD
- S&P 600 Small Cap Weight (IJR) - 9.73% loss w 32.8% MaxRD
- Treasury 3-7 Year (IEI) - 7.04% w 0.3% MaxRD
- Treasury 7-10 Year (IEF) - 10.95% w 1.1% MaxRD
- Treasury 20 Year (TLT) - 20.5% gain w 5.7% MaxRD
- Adaptive Global - 2.45% w 2.8% MaxRD
- Adaptive Income - 5.18% w 0.5% MaxRD
- Adaptive Innovation - 7.44% w 4.9% MaxRD
So now we are ⅔ of the way through 2020 and facing an election, civil unrest, historically extreme valuations and an economy which is trying to recover from massive shutdowns and unemployment. Should we abandon all hope and go to cash until sometime in 2021 by which time we hope the storm clouds will have lifted?
Not if we consider the essential backdrop under which our equity and bond markets are operating:
- The Federal Reserve has assumed absolute control of the credit markets. Neither Treasury auctions nor junk bond issuers will be allowed to fail. Interest rates are at historical lows and the Fed has announced its determination to keep them there for years.
- While election results may or may not offend our personal sensibilities, we have both parties engaged in ever increasing deficits differentiated only by the beneficiaries of the spending/tax cuts. There have been no apparent repercussions so the deficits will not only continue but increase with demands for everything from support payments to infrastructure.
- Higher Treasury yields will blow out the Federal budget. Most of the US Treasury debt is of short duration which must be constantly refinanced because the market refuses to absorb a greater supply of longer duration at rates acceptable to the Treasury.
All of this boils down to the fact that the Fed will continue to grow its balance sheet in order to absorb the growing supply of Treasury issuance/rollover while suppressing yields by buying whatever the market will not take at the target yield. The Fed will also continue to “manage” yields and spreads across the full spectrum of quality in the credit markets. This should prove supportive for both the bond and equity markets even if the currently hot stocks fall out of favor.
Ultimately, these policies are likely to yield the Fed’s desired inflation; however the negative effects are likely to be subdued until the economy recovers.
Our tactical adaptive strategies show an ability to weather remarkable and historical shifts in the market during the past two decades. I believe they can weather the next few years.
From the August 28th Market Monitor
"The major indexes were up sharply this week except for Housing. Mega and big cap indexes led, mid and small caps lagged. This rally can best be described as “hanging in there” as the intermediate term momentum fails to show true bullish strength while the short term momentum remains bullish. The next short term target for the SPX is 3666 and the next intermediate target is 3718.
Comparative momentum measures across indexes continue to show a loss of momentum in big cap versus mega cap and small cap versus big cap. The equal weighted versus cap weighted S&P 500 is also rolling over. Overall, these represent a significant loss in market breadth.
Cumulative Advancing Declining Volume continued with another week of bearish divergences; however the divergences did not worsen. In other words, the rally keeps chugging along on poor breadth and poor participation whether measured by indexes or sectors.
While the credit markets remain supportive of equities, the declines in both spreads and yields have turned flat leading to a decline in the Credit Market Index. While the Credit Market Index remains positive, it is clear that investors are beginning to shift toward less risk.
The delinquency rates on loans and leases is soaring which argues for a rise in credit spreads. This is coupled with greatly increased caution in commercial, industrial, and personal lending.
The US Dollar declined to support, bounced, and has resumed its decline.
Treasuries are seeing some distribution which is pressuring prices; however the rise in yields is unlikely to progress far.
Precious metals remain in corrective mode; however the major trend remains bullish.
Market Cap divided by GDP notched another historic high of 184% this week. While the sharp decline in GDP was the proximate cause of the sharp rise, the ratio was already sitting in the 150’s which has capped all rallies.
The rally in the equity market appears to be unstoppable; however participation is narrow, sentiment measures are at extremes, and equity volatility indexes are beginning to turn up. In other words, caution flags are flying."