Tactical Asset Allocation – December 2021

Market

From the December 31st Market Monitor

All major indexes except the Broker Dealer were up this week with the greatest strength in Housing and the small and mid cap indexes. While indexes rallied for the final week of the year, volume was typically low and breadth was poor. The S&P 500 came within 2 points of our 4811 price target before pulling back on Friday. We have one higher target remaining at 4897.

This week’s rally was enough to push the VIX Weekly Model to a Buy signal. This model often provides intermediate term signals which last for weeks or longer.

Cumulative Advancing Declining Volume continues to show significant bearish divergences across all S&P indexes plus NASDAQ 100 and 9 of 12 sectors.

The Credit Market Index improved again this week to -50%. While the steady improvement is constructive, we should not lose sight of the fact that credit conditions have tightened and are not confirming the new highs in the S&P 500.

The 10 year Treasury yield, which rose slightly this week,  remains range bound between 1.34% and 1.75%.

The current watch list :

• The Speculation Index suggests a pause in investor risk appetite
• The Russell 2000 breakout has failed and the index is now testing the bottom of its long consolidation. This suggests eventual failure.
• Just three of the seven mega-cap market leaders which have accounted for much of the rally in the big cap indexes are showing relative strength.
• Big caps appear to have started a shift from growth to value thereby joining the small caps.
• Consumer Staples is much better bid than Discretionary which is risk off
• Inflation expectations rose this week
• Overall market breadth is lagging the market with increased concentration among the mega caps
• For the past 30 days, the S&P 500 shows 8 Distribution Days (0.2% decline on higher volume) and 2 Accumulation Days (1% rally on higher volume). The consistency with which Distribution Days lead Accumulation Days is concerning.
• The VIX levels and signals are mixed but showing some positive divergences

Following a fabulous 2021, everyone wants to know what the market will do in 2022 and the talking heads oblige for forecasts. I think probabilities are more useful.

• The S&P 500 closed the year at 4+ standard deviations above its regressions from major lows in 1932, 1982, and 2009 and the probabilities of remaining there are well under 1%.
• Price action has been defying poor breadth as measured by Cumulative Advancing Declining Volume for many months; a condition which is not sustainable on a long term basis. Either breadth improves markedly or the equity market is extremely likely to enter a significant correction.
• The Credit Market Index remains negative which indicates tightening credit conditions across domestic and global markets and investment grade to junk. This suggests that the leverage and speculation which has helped drive this market to record valuations is unlikely to continue at the same pace.

Overall, the probabilities appear to favor the downside until breadth and credit market conditions improve.