Tactical Asset Allocation – February 2017

Performance

Global Core finished February up 2.18% and up 3.45% year to date.

Global Core benefited from a broad rise in US Equities, particularly large caps and by improvement in the Treasury market. "Too good to be true" are the words which come to mind when I look at the year-to-date performance and I look at the market.

Markets

Many of you know that I spend several hours each weekend examining and evaluating the behavior of both the market and investors in great detail. I share the resulting analysis in my Weekly Market Analyst Blog. The technicals underlying the Bull Market trend remain strong and provide no compelling evidence that a top is near. I see probable upside at +5% and improbable upside at +29%.

Equity Market Valuatons on the other hand are historically extreme. I refer you to two Advisor Perspectives blogs:

In a nutshell, the Average Of Four Valuation Indicators (first blog, 3rd chart) at 79 is: #1) at 2 Standard Deviations above its Mean, #2) at its highest level since 2000 and #3) at its second highest level since 1900. That average will be around 82 as of the end of February. Jill Minsky updates these articles monthly. The second article has already been updated for February and the update to the first can not be far behind.

Website update

The website update is complete. I am particularly pleased with the "Insights" page which allows readers to browse and select topics of interest. I recommend having a look.

Tactical Asset Allocation Fund Basket Performance

Global Core Strategy

Month-to-date: 2.18% gain
Year-to-date: 3.45% gain
Full cycle-to-date (Sep 2007): 10.39% CAGR, 6.53% Max Monthly Drawdown

Performance table (updated after the close each month)

Global Satellite Strategy

Month-to-date: hibernating since Nov 2014
Year-to-date: hibernating since Nov 2014
Full cycle-to-date (Sep 2007): 25.90% [email protected], 8.2% Max Monthly Drawdown

Performance table (updated after the close each month)

Other Strategies

US Core Strategy

Month-to-date: 2.18% gain,
Year-to-date: 3.45% gain
Full cycle-to-date (Sep 2007): 10.53% CAGR, 7.14% Max Monthly Drawdown

Performance table (updated after the close each month)

 

Ready to learn More about the Strategies?

Exceptional results are due entirely to the complementary strengths of our Market Conditions Model and our Tactical Model.

Not ready to subscribe but want to stay in the loop?

Sign up for Earl's Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies newsletter and receive his featured articles and performance updates.

 

A Caveat

A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.

Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.

 

A Caveat

A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.

Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.

A Caveat

A 35+ year secular bull market in both equities and bonds began in 1982. The last cyclical bull market in equities (and to a lesser extent, bonds) began 10 years ago. Returns during these periods have been historically exceptional. Market returns for the next 10 years are highly unlikely to approach those of the past 10. In fact, there is at least some evidence that market returns have a high probability of being significantly lower and that bonds and equities (which have risen together) may actually begin working at cross purposes.

Investors should not use the statistics shown for our strategies to establish expectations of specific levels of returns or drawdowns. Investors should, however, appreciate that we believe the principles which underlie the Tactical Adaptive Global, Tactical Adaptive Income, and Tactical Adaptive Innovation Strategies are enduring enough to significantly outperform the market in the future, both in lowering risk and in improving returns.