Tactical Asset Allocation – March 2016

The Core portfolio spent January (0.0%) entirely in cash, then shifted into high quality bonds and short term Treasuries for February (+0.50%) and March (+0.51%).

The Risk Model has served us well in identifying the period since 11/30/2014 as hostile which has kept us hunkered down in the Core Portfolio and out of the Satellite Portfolio. Although the market has almost fully recovered from its August and February declines, equity and fixed income assets are on the pricey side.

For the 104 month period beginning with the late great Bear Market in September 2007, the Core Portfolio shows a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 10.47%, a Maximum Drawdown of  7.14%, and a Sustainable Withdrawal Rate of 5.83%.

I expect the TAA portfolio to keep us out of trouble until risk and asset valuations are more favorable. The time for substantial returns will arrive with improved valuations in the market.

 

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