Tactical Asset Allocation – November 2017

Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Update


Global Core is up 2.06% for November and up 11.73% YTD

Big cap domestic has been the major contributor this month with a modest assist from domestic small cap. Treasuries declined modestly while precious metals and emerging markets were down very slightly.


When the Rebalance Notice went out on Sunday, Global Core was up 1.09% and I wondered if that gain would hold. The pre-Thanksgiving rally was astounding in starting from such extended levels and tacking on another 0.97% in four days. Market Cap divided by GDP closed November at a record high 141% ... see Market History page.

Yields on longer dated Treasuries have strengthened and appear headed higher. While this creates a small drag on our Core Strategy, it will provide more opportunity for returns when the Market Conditions Model recommends shifting some funds into Global Satellite (Hostile).


The Subscribers portal is now live and brings several new features:

  • View, manage, and renew subscriptions
  • Proforma portfolio with daily and month-to-date performance.
  • Instructions for Rebalance and recommended Tax Settings
  • TAAS Portfolio Manager & Rebalance Calculator
  • A new "Market Signals" page will go live within the next week or two and will be updated weekly or as conditions require. It will be a resource for long term investors and to check when concerned about possible changes in market conditions. It will cover, in a short and concise manner, the market data sets I have monitored for over three decades. This will likely end up replacing the Weekly Market Analyst TA blog.

Earl Adamy

Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Performance

Global Strategy (Conservative)

Month: 2.06% gain
Year-to-date: 11.73% gain
Full cycle-to-date (Sep 2007): 13.83% CAGR, 7.14% Max Monthly Drawdown

Global Strategy (Aggressive)

Month: 2.06% gain
Year-to-date: 11.73% gain
Full cycle-to-date (Sep 2007): 17.32% CAGR, 8.22% Max Monthly Drawdown

Tactical Asset Allocation Fund Basket Performance

Global Core

Month-to-date: 2.06% gain
Year-to-date: 11.73% gain
Full cycle-to-date (Sep 2007): 10.32% CAGR, 6.54% Max Monthly Drawdown

Global Satellite (includes Favorable & Hostile)

Month-to-date: hibernating since Jul 2016
Year-to-date: hibernating since Jul 2016
Full cycle-to-date (Sep 2007): 21.93% CAGR@Risk*, 8.21% Max Monthly Drawdown

*CAGR for the Favorable and Hostile Market Conditions during which Global Satellite was invested